Majoritetens faktaresistens

Idag redovisar lånar jag ett stort stycke ur SEPPs veckobrev vecka 46 2018. Indur Goklany är en forskare som till stora delar jobbat inom samma fält som nu avlidne Hans Rosling. Även Goklany hävdar att i stort sett allting blir bättre i det moderna samhället och att ny teknik underlättar att göra det bättre. Till skillnad från Rosling hävdar Goklany också att den koldioxid människan tillför atmosfären gör större nytta än skada. Rosling var ganska vag på den punkten och omfamnade i stort IPCCs teorier och nämnde dem mest i förbigående.

Den välkände professorn i matematisk fysik och astrofysik, Freeman Dyson, skrev ett långt förord till Goklanys bok Carbon Dioxide: The Good News, från 2015. I det förordet ägnade Dyson mest uppmärksamhet åt tro och vetande, faktaresistens var än den dyker upp. Här kommer några citat ur det förordet (översättningen med eventuella fel och brister är min). Sist kommer det en lång lista med länkar till intressanta rapporter och avhandlingar.

Indur Goklany har utfört ett noggrant arbete, samlat och dokumenterat bevisen för att koldioxid i atmosfären gör väsentligt mer nytta än skada. För varje fördomsfri människa som läser denna redogörelse kommer fakta bli uppenbara: de ickeklimatiska effekterna av koldioxid som upprätthållare av såväl vilda som odlade växters livsbetingelser är oerhört välgörande, att de möjligtvis skadliga klimatiska effekterna av koldioxid har överdrivits kraftigt, och att nyttan med tydlighet uppväger skadorna.

Jag anser mig vara en fördomsfri person och för mig är dessa fakta uppenbara. Men samma fakta är inte uppenbara för den majoritet av forskare och politiker som betraktar koldioxid som något ont och farligt. De människor som förutsätts vara experter och påstår sig förstå vetenskapen är just de människor som är blinda för dessa fakta. De bland mina kollegor inom vetenskapen som tror på den rådande dogmen om koldioxid kommer inte att finna Goklanys bevis övertygande. Jag hoppas att några av dem gör sig omaket att granska föreliggande bevis i detalj och se hur det motsäger rådande dogm, men jag vet att majoriteten förblir blind. För mig är detta det centrala mysteriet i klimatvetenskapen. Det är inte ett vetenskapligt mysterium utan ett mänskligt mysterium. Hur kan det komma sig att en hel generation av vetenskapliga experter är blinda för uppenbara fakta? I detta förord föreslår jag en övergripande förklaring till mysteriet.

Det finns många exempel i vetenskapshistorien på teorier framförda av kända tänkare, som godtagits av lojala följare. I en del fall, som bruket av åderlåtning som behandling av diverse sjukdomar, skadade irrationell tro ett stort antal människor. Andra irrationella teorier, som flogistonteorin eller den aristoteliska kosmologin med cirkulära rörelser i himlasfären, skadade endast genom att fördröja en noggrann undersökning av verkligheten. I alla dessa fall kan vi se en grupp människor förenade i en falsk tro som förenade ledare och följare. Den som ifrågasatte den rådande uppfattningen skapade oro i gemenskapen.

Verkliga framsteg i vetenskap kräver en annan kulturell tradition, med individer som uppfinner nya verktyg för att utforska naturen och inte räds att ifrågasätta auktoriteter. Vetenskap driven av rebeller och kättare sökande sanning har gjort stora framsteg de senaste tre seklerna. Men denna nya kultur av vetenskaplig skepticism är ett nytt tillskott och har inte ännu trängt tillräckligt djupt i vårt tänkande. Den gamla kulturen av grupplojalitet och dogmatisk tro lever kvar under ytan, styrande tankarna hos såväl forskare som allmänhetens åsikter. 

För att förstå mänskligt beteende betraktar jag människan evolution. För cirka hundratusen år sedan uppfann vår art en ny evolution. I tillägg till den biologiska evolutionen baserad på genetiska förändringar, inledde vi en kulturell evolution baserad på social och intellektuell förändring. Den biologiska evolutionen avstannade inte, men den kulturella evolutionen var mycket hastigare och blev snabbt den dominerande. Sociala vanor och uppfattningar sprids mycket fortare än gener. 

Kulturell evolution möjliggjordes av talade språk och stamlojaliteter. Stam tävlade med stam och kultur med kultur. De kulturer som blev rådande var de som belönade stamsammanhållning. Människan har alltid varit ett socialt djur och kultur gjorde oss än mer sociala. Vi utvecklades till att känna oss hemma i en grupp som tänker lika. Det var viktigare för en grupp människor att vara enade än att ha rätt. Det var alltid farligt och vanligen oönskat att ifrågasätta auktoritet. När auktoriteten var allvarligt hotad brändes kättarna på bål.

Jag anför att politiker och forskares tänkande i kontroversiella frågor än idag befinner sig på stamnivå. Vetenskap och politik är inte väsentligen annorlunda än andra aspekter av mänsklig kultur. Vetenskap och politik är produkter av kulturell evolution. Tankar kring vetenskapliga frågor är fortfarande framfört till allmänheten som en konkurrensbetonad sport med vinnare och förlorare. Där deltagarna i tävlingen har sitt allmänna rykte att försvara. Det är viktigare att tillhöra det vinnande laget än att analysera fakta.

Kulturell evolution handlade i hundratusen år om berättelser traderade av äldre till de yngre, sittande runt grottans eld. Den grotteldevolutionen gav oss hjärnor som är underbart känsliga för fabler och fantasier, men okänsliga för fakta och beräkningar. För att en stam skulle överleva i en kärv värld av jägare och byte underlättade det att ha hjärnor med stark emotionell anknytning till delade sånger och sagor. Det underlättade inte att ha hjärnor som ifrågasatte huruvida berättelserna vara sanna eller ej. Våra forskare och politiker i den moderna eran har precis nyss utvecklats från grottbarnen. De bär fortfarande, som Charles Darwin påtalade om människor i allmänhet, det outplånliga tecknet på sitt ringa ursprung.

Indur Goklany har sammanställt en imponerande samling av bevis som pekar på två fakta. För det första, ickeklimatiska effekter av koldioxid dominerar över klimateffekter och är till överväldigande del nyttiga. För det andra, de klimatiska effekterna observerade i den verkliga världen är mycket mindre skadliga än de effekter som förutspås av klimatmodellerna, effekterna har också regelbundet varit till nytta. Jag hoppas att de forskare och politiker som blint svartmålat koldioxid i 37 år, en dag öppnar sina ögon och tittar på bevisen. Goklany och jag påstår inte att vi är ofelbara. Liksom klimatmodellexperter har vi också nyligen utvecklats ur grottbarnens kultur. Som de har vi ärvt våra egna uppsättningar fördomar och blindhet. Sanning kommer fram när olika expertgrupper lyssnar på varandras berättelser och rättar varandras misstag.

 

Nedan så, en lång lista med länkar till artiklar och avhandlingar. Titta på rubrikerna i fetstil för att leta inom ditt intresseområde.

The US Fourth National Assessment: During the US government transition to the Trump administration the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) released a report called the Climate Science Special Report. Formed in 1989, according to its web site the USGCRP is mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to “assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.” At the time the Climate Science Special Report was released, there was no head of the Office of Science and Technology Policy or scientific advisor to President Trump, and his nomination of meteorologist Kelvin Droegemeier to the post has yet to be confirmed. Thus, the report was signed off by a bureaucratic scientist, without any accountability.

The report claims to be “an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the United States.” For some reason the authors of the report do not realize that in reporting “to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change” natural climate change exists. Maybe they do not realize that natural variation such as ice ages may be a part of global change.

Rebuttal: Meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo and others address specific problems in the report by rebutting claims such as that Heat Waves are increasing at an alarming rate and heat kills; global warming is causing more hurricanes and stronger hurricanes; global warming is causing more and stronger tornadoes; global warming has increased U.S. wildfires; global warming is causing snow to disappear; global warming is resulting in rising sea levels as seen in both tide gauge and satellite technology; Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland ice loss is accelerating due to global warming; rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are causing ocean acidification, which is catastrophically harming marine life; and carbon pollution is a health hazard. The last ignores the fact that without carbon dioxide there would be little or no life on earth.

Of course, the report ignores the fact that water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas, changes in clouds significantly affect climate, and climate involves the chaotic motion of two dynamic fluids flowing at different rates interacting with each other and the irregular surfaces of land masses and sea floors. It is doubtful that any of the authors of this “authoritative assessment” of the science of climate change can describe the flow of a stream over an irregular stream bed, rapids, much less than the more complex behavior of two fluids moving at changing velocity as they irregularly receive energy from the sun when the earth rotates and moves around the sun in an elliptical orbit.

Perhaps the saddest and silliest part of this report is the part on Global Mean Sea Level. The graphs claim to show sea levels today with a one-degree C warming since 1890 (preindustrial), sea levels 6 to 9 meters higher 125,000 years ago, during the last interglacial period, when claimed temperatures were 0.9 to 2 degrees C higher than 1890, and sea levels 10 to 30 meters higher 3,000,000 years-ago when claimed temperatures were 1.8 to 3.6 degrees C higher. Three million years ago was before the earth entered into the Quaternary period of ice ages, about 2.6 million years ago. Figure 8 of the Executive Summary shows an exponential increase is sea level rise since about 1890 (shooting up rapidly). The detailed chart shows six different rates of exponential rise in sea levels related to carbon dioxide emissions.

Yet, the only established relationship between carbon dioxide and temperatures is logarithmic, the inverse of exponential. This relationship has been established by numerous experiments in several different laboratories, as discussed in the October 20 TWTW and brought up in a paper by Jock Allison and Tom Sheahen.

With a budget for FY 2017 of $2.79 billion (requested with actual and subsequent expenditures not available), one should expect the USGCRP would hard evidence that increasing CO2 is causing increasing temperatures beyond the modest amount demonstrated by laboratory experiments. Instead, it relies on models demonstrated to be wrong. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.

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Missing Heat: Independent scientist Nicholas Lewis takes on a study claiming the oceans are “warming faster than previously thought.” He finds that if the trends are properly calculated, there is no accelerated warming of the seas. In a second post, Lewis addresses a fundamental error by the authors of the warming study. The authors thought they could remove a systematic error in the data by regression analysis. Regression analysis only establishes a trend in the data, it does not remove systematic error in the data.

It is not surprising to find such errors in surface data. The entire issue of finding “missing heat” focuses on surface data and does not relate directly to temperature trends in the atmosphere, where the greenhouse gas effect occurs. Certainly, El Ninos place a lot of water vapor into the atmosphere and have an important effect on atmospheric temperature trends, for the short term. But no one has been able to establish a relationship between El Ninos and CO2. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Wind Control: Writing for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, John Constable considers that Germany’s Energiewende may be entering a phase of greatly increasing costs. “Electricity system management costs in Germany are spiraling, in large part due to the sharply increasing costs of compensating renewable generators when their output is curtailed in order to preserve system stability.” In part, his views are based on German reports that are not fully translated, but part of this increase in costs is that Germany’s neighbors are becoming reluctant to accept excess generation, particularly during windy periods. Germany now must pay careful attention to future costs of generation before bowing to political pressure to add more wind.

In a separate post Roger Andrews of Energy Matters analyses wind power generation for most Western European countries, and finds they are roughly uniformly seasonal.

“The results indicate that wind surpluses in Western European countries during windy periods will be too large to be exported to surrounding countries and that wind deficits during wind lulls will be too large to be covered by imports from surrounding countries. This casts further doubt on claims that wind surpluses and deficits in one region can be offset by transfers to and from another because the wind is always blowing somewhere.”

This finding contradicts a popular claim that with sufficient transmissions lines, excess generation can always be unloaded, and a generation deficit can be made up by purchases of readily available wind generated power. Electricity customers may not appreciate the politicians and bureaucrats who have made decisions assuming wind power is low cost and always available. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Control

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Virginia’s Irresponsible Legislation: The governor of Virginia approved irresponsible legislation encouraging solar and wind power including off-shore wind power. The utility Dominion Energy is partnering with Danish energy company Orsted (formerly Dong) on a project about 28 miles (44 km) off Virginia Beach. The initial cost of the project is estimated to be $300 million and it is called the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project (CVOW). Dominion is a regulated utility, thus will earn a profit regardless of the cost effectiveness of the project. It will pass the allowable costs and profit on to its consumers.

In Virginia, the actions of utilities are normally approved by the State Corporation Commission (SCC). The new legislation prevented the SCC from denying the project. However, the SCC reviewed the project and presented its analysis on the prudence of the project. Part of the SCC findings are summarized below:

The facts militating against a standard finding of prudence in this matter include:

1. Dominion’s customers bear essentially all of the risk of the proposed Project, including cost overruns and lack of performance.

2. CVOW has the highest cost of any resource modeled in Dominion’s IRP.

3. CVOW’s cost per kWh (78.00 cents/kwh) is significantly more expensive (from 8.3 to 13.8 TIMES) than other renewable and non-renewable resources, including: (a) onshore wind (9.40 cents/kWh);
(b) solar (5.60 cents/kWh);
(c) natural gas (6.8 cents/kWh);
(d) demand-side management; and
(e) other offshore wind (8.40 cents/kWh).

4. Unlike other offshore wind projects on the East Coast, the Company did not choose a Power Purchasing Agreement model for offshore wind, which would have placed all or some of the risk on the Project’s developer instead of on Dominion’s customers.

5. CVOW is not the result of a competitive bidding process.

6. Dominion failed to prove that CVOW is needed to ensure reliable service to its customers at just and reasonable rates.

7. CVOW requires customers to bear the costs and risks in order to demonstrate the feasibility of a large-scale generating resource that will not be competitive with other resource options for the next 25 years under any scenario in Dominion’s IRP.

8. Dominion has stated its intention to decide whether to construct large-scale offshore wind (in 2019) before CVOW is operational (currently expected no sooner than December 2020).

9. The economic benefits specific to CVOW are speculative, whereas the risks and excessive costs are definite and will be borne by Dominion’s customers.

One can only imagine what types of projects will be proposed in states that have significant requirements for mandatory renewable electricity, such as California. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Control

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Number of the Month: 26 times market rate. As discussed immediately above, using the cost estimates provided by the utility, the Virginia State Corporation Commission found that Dominion Energy’s: “CVOW’s energy cost is approximately 26 times greater than purchasing energy from the market, which is in the 3.00 cents/kWh range.” See link to Final Order under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Control

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

Earth’s upper atmosphere cooling off dramatically and cosmic rays continue to increase as deep solar minimum approaches*
Paul Dorian, Perspecta, Inc, Nov 5, 2018 [H/t GWPF] https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/11/5/800-am-earths-upper-atmosphere-cooling-off- dramatically-and-cosmic-rays-continue-to-increase-as-deep-solar-minimum-approaches
[SEPP Comment: Includes video of upper atmosphere (thermosphere) cooling, about 90 km (56 miles) to between 500 and 1,000 km (311 to 621 miles) above earth.]

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013

Klicka för att komma åt CCR-II-Full.pdf

Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014

Klicka för att komma åt Full-Report.pdf

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015 http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf     

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Draft Summary for Policymakers, NIPCC, Oct 3, 2018 http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/10-05-18-DRAFT-CCRII- Fossil-Fuels-Summary-for-Policy-Makers.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Alarmist Claim Rebuttal Update
By Joseph D’Aleo, et al., ICECAP, Nov 6, 2018
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/alarmist_claim_rebuttal_update/

CARBON What is Driving the Strategy to Demonize the Most Amazing, Life Sustaining Element? Chapter 4, 5, 6
By Robert D. Brinsmead, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Nov 8, 2018 http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2018/11/carbon-what-is-driving-strategy-to_72.html

Carbon Dioxide: The good news
By Indur M. Goklany, GWPF, 2015
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2015/10/benefits1.pdf?utm_source=CCNet+Newsletter &utm_campaign=e4d7f852f9- EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_09_07_12_27&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fe4b2f45ef- e4d7f852f9-20139141

CARBON What is Driving the Strategy to Demonize the Most Amazing, Life Sustaining Element? Chapter 4, 5, 6
By Robert D. Brinsmead, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Nov 8, 2018 http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2018/11/carbon-what-is-driving-strategy-to_72.html

News Media Gave Blanket coverage to Flawed Climate Paper
Press Release, GWPF, Nov 7, 2018

News Media Gave Blanket Coverage To Flawed Climate Paper

Challenging the claim that oceans are “warming faster than previously thought.”: A major problem with the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake paper

By Nicholas Lewis, His Blog, Nov 6, 2018 https://www.nicholaslewis.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/A-major-problem-with-the- Resplandy-et-al.-ocean-heat-uptake-paper.pdf

Resplandy et al. Part 2: Regression in the presence of trend and scale systematic errors
By Nic Lewis, Climate Etc. Nov 7, 2018
https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/07/resplandy-et-al-part-2-regression-in-the-presence-of-trend- and-scale-systematic-errors/

Global Warming and Fake Science
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Nov 4, 2018
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/11/global_warming_and_fake_science.html
“Every wind or solar installation has to be 100% backed up by conventional generation. As a consequence, they are simply useless appendages to the electric grid, like a sixth toe. The small amount of fuel saved in the backup plants, when the erratic wind or solar is actually working, does not remotely pay the cost of the wind or solar make-work projects. Wind and solar are not even cost-effective for reducing CO2 emissions.”       

Quality Control Sorely Needed In Climate Science: Half Of Peer-Reviewed Results Non- Replicable, Flawed.
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 8, 2018 http://notrickszone.com/2018/11/08/quality-control-sorely-needed-in-climate-science-half-of- peer-reviewed-results-non-replicable-flawed/

The IPCC’s Attempt to Move the Goalposts for Climate Change
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Nov 3, 2018
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/4657

Defending the Orthodoxy

Trump disputes federal climate report’s findings, says he hasn’t seen it
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Nov 5, 2018
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/414890-trump-disputes-federal-climate-report- says-he-hasnt-seen-it
Link to report: Climate Science Special Report Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I
This report is an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the United States. It represents the first of two volumes of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990.
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Don’t panic over U.N. climate change report
By Bjorn Lomborg, USA Today, Oct 10, 2018
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/10/10/dont-panic-over-intergovernmental-panel- climate-change-report-editorials- debates/1595137002/?mc_cid=8a676ef9e5&mc_eid=da9b256360

All the Times We Had Just Months to Save the Planet
By Gaido Fawkes, His Blog, Nov 8, 2018 [H/t GWPF]

All The Times We Had Just Months To Save The Planet

Delingpole: Attenborough Ditches ‘Turn-Off’ Eco Doom-Mongering
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Nov 4, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2018/11/04/delingpole-david-attenborough-to-stop-crying- wolf-admits-eco-hysteria-a-real-turn-off/amp/

After Paris!

‘Green’ China’s Energy Gambit
By Michael Kowalik, Quadrant, Nov 5, 2018
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2018/11/green-chinas-energy-gambit/

Seeking a Common Ground

A carbon neutral solution for desalination? Maybe so by tapping into geothermal
By Staff Writers, Geological Society of America, Nov 5, 2018
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181105091756.htm         

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

The Effects of Elevated CO2 on the Nutritional Quality of Vegetables
Dong, J., Gruda, N., Lam, S.K., Li, X. and Duan, Z. 2018. Effects of elevated CO2 on nutritional quality of vegetables: A review. Frontiers in Plant Science 9: Article 924, doi: 10.3389/fpls.2018.00924. Nov 9, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/nov/a6.php
“All in all, it would therefore appear that CO2-induced plant nutritional enhancements far outweigh any CO2-induced plant nutritional declines. Thus, it can reasonably be concluded that rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations will yield future health benefits to both human and animal plant consumers.”

The Impact of Elevated CO2 and Temperature on Wheat Powdery Mildew Disease
Matić, S., Cucu, M.A., Garibaldi, A. and Gullino, M.L. 2018. Combined effect of CO2 and temperature on wheat powdery mildew development. The Plant Pathology Journal 34: 316-326. Nov 8, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/nov/a5.php

Ocean Acidification and Warming Benefit an Arctic Primary Producer
Hoppe, C.J.M., Flintrop, C.M. and Rost, B. 2018. The Arctic picoeukaryote Micromonas pusilla benefits synergistically from warming and ocean acidification. Biogeosciences 15: 4353-4365. Nov 7, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/nov/a4.php

A Six-Decade Analysis of Growing Season Temperature Change in Illinois
Dahal, V., Gautam, S. and Bhattarai, R. 2018. Analysis of long-term temperature trend in Illinois and its implication on the cropping system. Environmental Processes 5: 451-464, doi: 10.1007/s40710-018-0306-7. Nov 5, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/nov/a3.php
“It would thus appear that climate alarmists have got things backwards. Not only has the extra CO2 that has been added to the atmosphere over the past six decades directly stimulated crop production and yield, it has also likely induced an era of more favorable growing season temperatures. And that is a win-win situation for ensuring the future food security of the planet!”

Measurement Issues — Surface

Another failure of peer review, due to corrupt temperature data from a single station
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 7, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/07/another-failure-of-peer-review-due-to-corrupt- temperature-data-from-a-single-station/

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

October 2018 Map and Graph of Global Atmospheric Temperature Trends
By Staff Writers, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, October 2018
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2018/october2018/201810_map.png https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2018/october2018/tlt_201810_bar.png

Changing Weather

El Nino is Strengthening
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Nov 7, 2018
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/11/el-nino-is-strengthening.html

Extreme Weather 1971-Style!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 8, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/08/extreme-weather-1971-style- 2/#more-36177

The Great Lakes Hurricane [Nov 9, 1913]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2018
The Great Lakes Hurricane
“Twelve commercial lake boats were lost with their entire crews on the Great Lakes and at least 235 sailors perished.”

A Stunning Video of Arizona Monsoon Thunderstorms
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Nov 5, 2018
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-stunning-video-of-arizona-monsoon.html

Changing Climate

New Study: Medieval Warm Period Not Limited To North Atlantic, But Occurred In South America As Well
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 3, 2018 http://notrickszone.com/2018/11/03/new-study-medieval-warm-period-not-limited-to-north- atlantic-but-occurred-in-south-america-as-well/

Preindustrial climate change in South America: the Middle Age was warm, glaciers shrank
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), Link to paper: The Medieval Climate Anomaly in South America
By Sebastian Lüning, et al, Quaternary International, Oct 31, 2018 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618218308322

Glaciers on the move: Two minutes of extreme climate change on Swiss Alps, Italian beaches
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 8, 2018
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/11/two-minutes-of-extreme-climate-change-on-swiss-alps-italian- beaches/
[SEPP Comment: Video simulation going backwards to 23,000 years ago.]

Changing Seas

The Thames Barrier
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2018
The Thames Barrier
“Nevertheless there is nothing in the data to suggest that rising sea levels are a problem there.” [Dating to 1965]

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Study: ‘Arctic sea ice loss in the last 37 years is not due to humans alone.’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 6, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/06/study-arctic-sea-ice-loss-in-the-last-37-year-is-not-due- to-humans-alone/

Link to paper: Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations
By Qinghua Ding, et al. Nature, Geoscience, Nov 5, 2018
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0256-8
[SEPP Comment: According to the paper, 40 to 50% of the recent Arctic sea ice lost may be due to internal variability.]

Polar bears waiting for ice on Russian coast of Chukchi Sea threaten village residents
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 7, 2018
https://polarbearscience.com/2018/11/07/polar-bears-waiting-for-ice-on-russian-coast-of-chukchi- sea-threaten-village-residents/#more-119453

Link to articles in the Siberian Times:
By Staff Writers, The Siberian Times, Nov 7, 2018
“25 polar bears plus cubs besiege village of Ryrkaypiy in Chukotka”
“Teenage dies a hero after saving his cousin from bear attack”
“Hero dog that saved owner during three weeks lost in chilly Siberian wilderness has died” “A brown bear finds and rips hunters’ car” https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/25-polar-bears-plus-cubs-besiege-village-of- ryrkaypiy-in-chukotka/

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

Climate change causes exploding rat plagues, locusts, cockroaches of the oceans…
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 5, 2018
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/11/climate-change-causes-exploding-rat-plagues-locusts- cockroaches-of-the-oceans/
[SEPP Comment: Cockroaches of the oceans!]

Questioning European Green

How to Stifle Innovation
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Nov 8, 2018
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/dyson-dust-and-the-eu/

The Political Games Continue

All eyes on top Democrat to bring science back to science committee
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Nov 7, 2018
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/415589-all-eyes-on-top-democrat-to-bring-science- back-to-science-committee
[SEPP Comment: Does “science” have a political bias?]

House Dems plan to bring back committee on climate change
By Avery Anapol, The Hill, Nov 8, 2018
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/415723-house-dems-plan-to-bring-back- committee-on-climate-change

Democrats plan to use House majority to prep for major climate change legislation in 2020
By Josh Siegel, Washington Examiner, Nov 6, 2018
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/democrats-plan-to-use-house-majority-to- prep-for-major-climate-change-legislation-in-2020

Litigation Issues

Canada ‘disappointed’ with court ruling blocking Keystone XL
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Nov 9, 2017
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/415989-canada-disappointed-with-court-ruling- blocking-keystone-xl
“Montana federal Judge Brian Morris’s ruling issued late Thursday found that the State Department didn’t properly justify why it reversed the reasoning for rejecting Keystone XL in 2015, and it needs to more thoroughly examine issues like the impact of low oil prices and potential American Indian resources along the route.”

The Out-of-Control NY Attorney General’s Office Takes on ExxonMobil
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 7, 2018
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2018-11-7-the-out-of-control-ny-attorney-generals- office-takes-on-exxonmobil

University of California Sued Over Stonewalling of ‘Climate Litigation’ Documents
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Nov 8, 2018
https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/08/university-california-climate-litigation/

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

The Carbon Tax: Analysis of Six Potential Scenarios
By Staff Writers, Capital Alpha Partners, Commissioned by Institute for Energy Research, Oct 31, 2018 https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/international-issues/the-carbon-tax-analysis-of-six- potential-scenarios/

Washington state voters reject carbon tax
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Nov 7, 2018
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/415418-washington-state-voters-reject-carbon-tax

Energy Issues – Non-US

Poland inks deal to buy US natural gas
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Nov 8, 2018
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/415787-poland-inks-deal-to-buy-us-natural-gas

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Britain’s Cuadrilla extracts first shale gas at English fracking site
By Susanna Twidale, Reuters, Nov 2, 2018
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-fracking/britains-cuadrilla-extracts-first-shale-gas-at- english-fracking-site-idUKKCN1N71J3
“The British Geological Survey estimates shale gas resources in northern England alone could contain 1,300 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas, 10 percent of which could meet the country’s demand for almost 40 years.”

Brexit uncertainty leads to decline in UK clean energy investment
By Andy Walker, Infrastructure Intelligence, Nov 6, 2018
http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/nov-2018/brexit-uncertainty-leads-decline-uk- clean-energy-investment

Ta-da! America’s Shale Boom Makes a New Mexico U.S. oil and gas production keeps defying expectations, including a nation-sized surge this year.
By Liam Denning, Bloomberg, Nov 1, 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-01/u-s-oil-production-the-shale-boom- makes-a-new-mexico
[SEPP Comment: Whose expectations?]

Colorado rejects new oil drilling restrictions
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Nov 7, 2018
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/415415-colorado-rejects-new-oil-drilling-restrictions

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Green group backs keeping nuclear plants open
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Nov 8, 2018
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/415715-green-group-backs-keeping-nuclear-plants- open
[SEPP Comment: How vigorously?]

Nuclear scientists take leap towards fusion power as they test revolutionary new 15MILLION degrees celsius energy generator
By Claire Anderson, Daily Mail, UK, Nov 5, 2018 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6348885/Nuclear-scientists-leap-fusion-power-test- revolutionary-new-energy-generator.html

Toshiba’s UK withdrawal puts Cumbria nuclear plant in doubt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 8, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/08/toshibas-uk-withdrawal-puts- cumbria-nuclear-plant-in-doubt/
[SEPP Comment: One of the possible reasons for getting out of nuclear and US Natural Gas business is to avoid legacy problems that Toshiba acquired when it was buying companies. It has sold many businesses that were associated with its brand name including personal computers, television sets and medical devices to improve its cash flow.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

The down side to wind power, Wind farms will cause more environmental impact than previously thought
By Leah Burrows, The Harvard Gazette, Oct 4, 2018 https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2018/10/large-scale-wind-power-has-its-down-side/ Link to paper 1: Observation-based solar and wind power capacity factors and power densities By Lee M Miller and David W Keith, Environmental Research Letters, Oct 4, 2018 http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae102

Link to paper 2: Climatic Impacts of Wind Power
By Lee M Miller and David W Keith, Joule, Oct 4, 2018 https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(18)30446-X

Occupational Health Expert Exposes The Serious Hazards Of Infrasound From Wind Turbines
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 7, 2018 http://notrickszone.com/2018/11/07/occupational-health-expert-exposes-the-serious-hazards-of- infrasound-from-wind-turbines/

Study: Wind Farms Kill Off 75% Of Buzzards, Hawks And Kites That Live Nearby [India]
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov l6, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/06/study-wind-farms-kill-off-75-of-buzzards-hawks-and- kites-that-live-nearby/

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Large hydropower dams ’not sustainable’ in the developing world
By Matt McGrath, BBC, Nov 5, 2018
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46098118

Link to paper: Sustainable hydropower in the 21st century
By Emilio F. Moran, Maria Claudia Lopez, Nathan Moore, Norbert Müller, and David W. Hyndman, PNAS, Nov 5, 2018 http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/11/02/1809426115

Environmental Impacts Of Drilling For Geothermal Energy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/09/environmental-impacts-of-drilling- for-geothermal-energy/#more-36185

The Overlooked Downside Of Ethanol
By Robert Rapier, Oil Price.com, Nov 5, 2018
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Biofuels/The-Overlooked-Downside-Of-Ethanol.html
“Ethanol is known to damage small gasoline-powered engines, such as those in lawnmowers and leaf blowers.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Control

Has the Cost of Germany’s Energiewende Entered a Critical Phase?
By John Constable, GWPF, Nov 8, 2018

Has the Cost of Germany’s Energiewende entered a Critical Phase?

SCC says Dominion customers will bear risks of $300 million offshore wind project, legislature to blame
By Michael Martz, Richmond Time-Dispatch, Nov 2, 2018 [H/t Randy Randol] https://www.richmond.com/business/scc-says-dominion-customers-will-bear-risks-of-million- offshore/article_645eafd6-e0dd-51be-9b5d-41da54f30aa9.html

Link to docket and final order by SCC:

Klicka för att komma åt 4c%24z01!.PDF

SCC says Dominion customers will bear risks of $300 million offshore wind project, legislature to blame
By Tamara Dietrich, Daily Press, (Virginia), Nov 5, 2018 https://www.dailypress.com/news/science/dp-nws-scc-wind-energy-20181105-story.html

Quantifying wind surpluses and deficits in Western Europe
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Nov 7, 2018

Quantifying wind surpluses and deficits in Western Europe

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Lessons from Regensburg
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Nov 6, 2018

Lessons from Regensburg

The Government’s Policy on Electric Cars Is Bonkers
By Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph, Via GWPF, Nov 14, 2018

Christopher Booker: The Government’s Policy On Electric Cars Is Bonkers

Oh Mann!

Dr. Mann Says Man-Made Weather Change Isn’t Rocket Science. Observations Show It’s Not Even Science.
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 5, 2018 http://notrickszone.com/2018/11/05/dr-mann-says-man-made-weather-change-isnt-rocket- science-observations-show-its-not-even-science/

Other Scientific News

EPIC views of Earth finally providing some useful science
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 8, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/08/epic-views-of-earth-finally-providing-some-useful- science/

Other News that May Be of Interest

Fertility rates cut in half since 1950 — but the population is still growing
By Michael Nedelman, CNN, Nov 9, 2018
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/08/health/global-burden-disease-fertility-study/index.html

Link to Study: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
By Staff Writers, The Lancet, Global Burden of Diseases, Nov 10, 2018 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31891-9/fulltext “Lifespans have also gotten longer on average since 1950, climbing from 48.1 to 70.5 years for men and from 52.9 to 75.6 years for women, according to the study.”

Nov 8th, 2018 #CampFire – captured by LANDSAT satellite at peak rage
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 9, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/09/nov-8th-2018-campfire-captured-by-landsat-satellite-at- peak-rage/

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:

Bicycle spectacle
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Nov 10, 2018

bicycle spectacle

“Wearing nothing but their causes, 30 naked cyclists hit Newcastle streets yesterday in a very visual protest.
“Some found them appalling, others appealing, but whatever the personal impressions of the naturists activists, it was their messages splashed across their brightly painted bodies that gained the most attention.
“Newcastle’s staging of the World Naked Bike Ride, dubbed Nudecastle 2008, was a huge success organiser Marte Kinder said. The group protested for environmental accountability, climate change action and anti-war causes.
“Clothing was optional with some riders preferring to keep sensitive areas covered, while for others body paint did the trick, organiser Mr Kinder said. Newcastle Herald (Australia), 10 Mar 2008 – screen copy held by this website”

ClimateCam is watching you!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Nov 9, 2018

ClimateCam is watching you!

“A huge electronic billboard in the city square telling residents exactly how much greenhouse gas they have produced in the past hour. Sounds a little futuristic? Not if you live in Newcastle. ClimateCam, the world’s first greenhouse gas speedometer, displays electricity consumption information collected from the 15 substations that supply homes and businesses in the Newcastle local government area. The council now believes Newcastle has been established as an international testing ground for climate solutions.
“’We realise that the climate change issue is just so big and we are so, in Australia, far behind the rest of the world that we need to move very, very quickly if we’re going to catch up and have access to the huge economic opportunity that we foresee is coming with the implementation of climate solutions,’ city energy and resource manager of Newcastle City Council, Peter Dormand says.’ Sydney Morning Herald, 24 Oct 2007”

ARTICLES:

1. State AGs for Rent
Privately funded litigators wield state police power. Editorial, WSJ, Nov 6, 2018 https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-ags-for-rent-1541549567
The editorial states:
“With the courts and Trump Administration rolling back federal climate regulation, green activists have turned to the states. But there’s a troubling ethical twist: Instead of merely lobbying, activists are placing employees in Attorneys General offices in dubious private-public condominiums.
“Consider a remarkable arrangement brokered by the NYU Law School’s State Energy and Environmental Impact Center to fund legal services for state AGs. The group was launched in August 2017 to advance a liberal climate and energy agenda, courtesy of a $6 million grant from Bloomberg Philanthropies, which also financed the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign.
“In August 2017 the NYU outfit emailed then-New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s office, offering to cover the salary and benefits of “special assistant attorneys general,” pending an application from the office that demonstrated how the new attorneys would be used. These privately funded staffers would work out of an AG’s office for two years and deliver quarterly progress reports to the State Energy and Environmental Impact Center.
“Those progress reports would explain “the contribution that the legal fellow has made to the clean energy, climate change, and environmental initiatives” within the attorney general’s office, according to a December 2017 draft of an agreement between the Center and the New York AG obtained by Chris Horner of the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
“Attorneys General do sometimes bring on legal fellows or outside help to handle unique cases. But subject-matter experts aren’t in-house or chosen with specific intent to promote specific policies, according to Randy Pepple, who was chief of staff for former Washington Republican AG Rob McKenna. In the New York case, a special interest is funding staffers who could wield state law-enforcement power to punish opponents.
“The State Energy and Environmental Impact Center made clear that state AG offices would only qualify for special assistant AGs if they ‘demonstrate a need and commitment to defending environmental values and advancing progressive clean energy, climate change, and environmental legal positions,’ according to the August 2017 email to numerous AGs. Mr. Schneiderman’s office suggested in its application for the fellows that it ‘needs additional attorney resources to assist’ in extracting compensation from fossil-fuel emitters.
“That’s exactly what’s happening. The New York AG currently has two NYU fellows on staff, according to the State Energy and Environmental Impact Center. One of the fellows, Gavin McCabe, signed off as ‘special assistant attorney general’ on an amicus brief in June in support of New York City’s suit for damages against BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips , Exxon Mobil , and Royal Dutch Shell for alleged climate sins. That case was thrown out in July by federal Judge John Kennan on grounds that problems arising from climate change “are not for the judiciary to ameliorate.”

After discussing another example, the editorial continues with:

“A lack of government transparency makes this arrangement especially troubling. The New York AG’s office, now run by Acting AG Barbara Underwood, declined to comment. Mr. McCabe and Mr. Eisenson could not be reached for comment by our deadline.
“The State Energy and Environmental Impact Center said in a statement that the state offices it works with ‘has the authority consistent with applicable law and regulations to accept a Legal Fellow whose salary and benefits are provided by an outside funding source.’ It added that it places workers with AGs who already have a long history of advancing the center’s energy priorities. ‘The work that NYU law fellows perform is directed by those AGs and not by the Center,’ the Center said.
“At least six state AG offices have already brought on board a special assistant attorney general, according to an August report by Mr. Horner. Besides New York, the jurisdictions include Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington and the District of Columbia. In September, Mr. Horner learned that Illinois and New Mexico have brought on special assistant AGs as well, which was confirmed by the NYU outfit.
“The ethical problems here should be obvious. Private interests are leveraging the police powers of the state to pursue their political agenda, while a government official is letting private interests appear to influence enforcement decisions. None of this is reassuring about the fair administration of justice.”

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